Key themes
UN forecast for population growth for 2030
Urbanisation
Over the last 70 years the highest rates of urbanisation have been in the less economically developed regions of the world. This trend is illustrated above which compares levels of urban population among the continents, since the 1950s, through to United Nations (UN) growth predictions in 2030.
- In 1970, one in four people living in the LEDCs were urban dwellers; now the figure is about two in every five.
- By 2030 it is forecast that a further 1900 million people will become urbanised in Africa and Asia.
- Urbanisation in LEDCs tends to be characterised by very large populations being concentrated into a relatively small number of megacities.
i) A megacity is a city with over 10 million people.
- In 1970, one in four people living in the LEDCs were urban dwellers; now the figure is about two in every five.
- By 2030 it is forecast that a further 1900 million people will become urbanised in Africa and Asia.
- Urbanisation in LEDCs tends to be characterised by very large populations being concentrated into a relatively small number of megacities.
i) A megacity is a city with over 10 million people.
Development of urban primacy
A primate city is one that has more than twice the population of the next biggest city. An example is Lima, Peru, that is more than ten times larger than the next settlement. It can occur for a few reasons:
- One city will start to attract the majority of public and/or private investment. This could be due to natural advantage or political decisions. This in turn will stimulate further investment due to the multiplier effect and significant rural to urban migration. The investment in this city will be at the expense of other cities.
- A former colonial city is likely to maintain and possibly increase its urban primacy. It would have originally been the main source of colonial investment because colonial powers were not interested in investing in all cities, just those necessary for them to exploit the raw materials. Therefore, they probably invested heavily in a port. Today, this port will still be the focus of investment and migration.
- A country particularly dependent on export earnings will focus its development on one key port.